In June 2024, global financial powerhouse UBS became the latest victim of a cyberattack—not due to a breach in its own defenses, but through a vulnerability in a third-party provider. The leak exposed sensitive employee data after a ransomware group, LockBit 3.0, targeted a third-party vendor that provided HR and payroll services.This incident is just one in a growing wave of supply chain cyberattacks. It underscores a critical truth: traditional third-party risk management (TPRM) systems are no longer enough. And when it comes to fourth parties and beyond, most enterprises are flying blind.Why Current TPRM Systems Are Falling ShortToday’s organizations depend on a sprawling network of vendors, platforms, and service providers. These third parties—often with their own nested vendors (fourth parties)—form a complex digital supply chain. While traditional TPRM platforms offer questionnaires, risk scores, and annual reviews, they don’t offer real-time visibility, don’t anticipate future threats, and rarely extend their lens to fourth parties.Here’s why that’s dangerous:

• Attackers don’t follow your org chart: They look for the weakest link in your ecosystem. In UBS’s case, that was an external HR service provider.

• TPRM is point-in-time, but risk is dynamic: Annual vendor assessments don’t help if your supplier is breached next week.

• Fourth-party risk is largely invisible: Most organizations don’t know who their vendors’ vendors are—yet they inherit that risk.

The UBS Breach: An Anatomy of the ProblemUBS’s compromised data was traced back to Zellis, a UK-based payroll provider. Zellis was using the MOVEit file transfer software, which was exploited by LockBit 3.0 using a known vulnerability. The breach didn’t stem from UBS or even Zellis directly, but from a software supply chain component—a classic fourth-party vulnerability.This illustrates a sobering reality: you’re only as strong as your least secure digital partner, and traditional systems provide no defense against fast-moving, multi-layered threats like these.UBS, a bank with world-class internal cybersecurity, still suffered a breach through no fault of its own.The Illusion of Coverage: Gaps in Existing Risk ProgramsLegacy GRC platforms and TPRM systems offer a sense of control—dashboards, policy tracking, vendor inventories—but they are built for compliance, not resilience. These systems often:

• Focus on passive risk identification rather than proactive prevention
• Rely on self-assessments from vendors (often biased or incomplete)
• Lack real-time monitoring of threat actor behavior
• Don’t map or monitor fourth- and nth-party dependencies
• Can’t forecast emerging risks in the global threat landscapeIn the face of today’s adversaries—ransomware gangs, AI-powered threat actors, nation-state groups—that’s not just insufficient; it’s dangerous.AI and Prediction:

The Only Way to Get Ahead of the CurveThe future of risk management isn’t just automation. It’s anticipation.Predictive systems powered by AI represent the new frontier in TPRM. By integrating threat intelligence, behavioral analysis, and large-scale ecosystem data, AI can identify emerging threats before they materialize, and flag high-risk vendors based on real-world indicators—not just self-reported scores.Imagine knowing:

• That your fourth-party file transfer vendor was likely to be exploited, weeks before it was

• Which suppliers are most likely to experience a ransomware attack based on changing risk signals

• How cyber incidents propagate through your vendor ecosystem and which nodes are most vulnerable

With AI, this is possible—not hypothetically, but now.Introducing Wisr: Predictive TPRM for the Modern EraWisr is building what traditional GRC systems never could: a real-time, predictive risk intelligence platform that goes beyond third parties. Our platform uses agentic AI to map and monitor your extended digital ecosystem—including third-, fourth-, and fifth-party vendors.By blending public threat data, breach reports, behavioral telemetry, and proprietary intelligence, Wisr flags future risks, not just past exposures. Our engine doesn’t just tell you who failed a questionnaire—it shows you who is most likely to become your next breach vector.Key features include:

• Predictive modeling of risk propagation across vendor networks

• Continuous monitoring of known and unknown fourth-party risks

• Risk scoring based on real-world signals—not just checkboxes

• Integration with compliance and SOC tools for seamless remediationThe result? Organizations that don’t just react faster—they prevent incidents entirely.

Why Prediction Is the Only Option

Cyberattacks like the one that impacted UBS are no longer rare. According to Gartner, by 2026, 60% of organizations will use cybersecurity risk as a primary determinant in conducting third-party transactions. But that’s only possible if those organizations have forecasting capabilities built into their risk management programs.Prediction gives enterprises the edge. It transforms:

• Risk registers into living systems

• Vendor management into active defense

• Compliance frameworks into resilience strategies

And most importantly, it prevents tomorrow’s headlines.Final Thoughts: Get Ahead or Get ExposedThe UBS incident is not unique. It’s a preview of what’s to come for any organization relying on vendors, suppliers, or platforms—which is to say, everyone.The problem isn’t just one bad actor or one vulnerable system. It’s systemic: the way we assess risk is outdated. Static systems in a dynamic threat landscape will always fall behind.At Wisr, we believe the only path forward is prediction. AI-powered insights. Proactive ecosystem visibility. And continuous adaptation to an ever-evolving threat landscape.If your TPRM platform can’t tell you what’s coming next, it’s not protecting you.